In this easy-to-follow video course, learn how to forecast trended time series accurately in Excel: the foundation for a wide range of powerful predictive analytics applications!
Companies of all sizes are turning to exponential smoothing to accurately forecast trended data such as sales, demand, and other key business indicators. In this video course, world-class analytics expert Conrad Carlberg shows you how to use smoothing to forecast trends with a tool you already know: Microsoft Excel. Carlberg illuminates each technique through easy-to-follow video, with crystal-clear explanations reflecting his decades of experience solving complex analytical problems with Excel. You’ll learn how smoothing works and how to prepare data; quantify a forecast’s accuracy; use Excel Solver to reduce forecast error; interpret smoothing analyses; work with baselines; support your forecasts with regression analyses; diagnose trends using autocorrelation; detrend and forecast from a trended baseline; initialize forecast values; and backcast beyond the start of your baseline. You’ll learn hands-on through practice workbooks provided for your own use and adaptation. By the time you’re done, you’ll have mastered one of today’s most valuable predictive analytics skillsets?one you can use in nearly any field of business.
About the Instructor
Conrad Carlberg is a multiple recipient of Microsoft’s Most Valuable Professional (MVP) award for Microsoft Excel. He has written 11 books about quantitative analysis with Excel, including Predictive Analysis: Microsoft Excel and Statistical Analysis: Microsoft Excel. His company (at conradcarlberg.com) specializes in custom statistical and analytical problems ranging from inventory control to real-estate market segmentation. Carlberg holds a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Colorado and has 25 years of experience in applying advanced analytic techniques.
What You Will Learn
- How to use powerful trended smoothing techniques in Excel to predict sales, demand, and more
- How to use Excel's Solver to optimize values and constants in order to minimize forecasting error
- How to convert time series observations and forecasts to charts that make your predictions intuitively clear
- How trended smoothing techniques work in the familiar context of Excel syntax and worksheets
- How to adapt this video’s accompanying workbooks to your own unique requirements
Who Should Take This Course
- Direct client statistical modelers and others who need to perform advanced analytics and data mining to identify booking opportunities and plan for customer retention
- Database marketing analysts working with customer-related metrics
- Senior marketing reporting analysts and others who must deliver production reporting and analytics for retail marketing, product, and/or finance business partners
- Digital Analytics VPs and others working at or with advertising agencies to develop data-driven digital marketing insight products and optimization approaches for client engagements
- Anyone seeking more effective ways to predict sales and/or demand
- Assumes some knowledge of regression analysis (or at least familiarity with the contents of a book such as Conrad Carlberg’s Statistical Analysis: Microsoft Excel 2013
About LiveLessons Video Training
LiveLessons Video Training series publishes hundreds of hands-on, expert-led video tutorials covering a wide selection of technology topics designed to teach you the skills you need to succeed. This professional and personal technology video series features world-leading author instructors published by your trusted technology brands: Addison-Wesley, Cisco Press, IBM Press, Pearson IT Certification, Prentice Hall, Sams, and Que. Topics include IT Certification, Programming, Web Development, Mobile Development, Home and Office Technologies, Business and Management, and more. View all LiveLessons on InformIT at http://www.informit.com/livelessons.